enced and restricted by their social setting (i.e., institutions). Georgetown University Press. strengthened when used as a complement to the IAD framework. originate. The, results show a link between the independent institution in the form of a specific. there is still much more that can be investigated, written, and shared. One delimitation worth mentioning here is that this thesis focuses on intelligence as, support to military operations. It identifies the most general set of variables as well as the meta-theoretical, language facilitating communication between scholars and practitioners. Vy�u�vӎ������a.�q�$l�����ʮ��C;Hvp!Y���i� �y�'�������vT��b[��N,�:toO��|H�b'G�}p�0�_8:�E,]]מ�9wj�9�^�ɊٸAY� �oں.��Z*I��EA�^M� ———. According to the Swedish doctrine, the EEI typically, answers questions of a closed nature (i.e., yes or no); whereas, the PIR and SIR have, a more open character (Swedish Armed Forces 2010). The IAD belongs to the family of frameworks that are called institu-, tional rational choice. One of the strengths of, case studies in general is the conceptual validity, which is a part of the internal valid-. 2004. The view of causality and how it is measured are central elements in most academic, endeavors aiming to explain research. Information is defined as unprocessed data of. ‘What Are Institutions?’. Thus, the case study in this thesis does, alizations can be made regarding other areas, such as public administration; for ex-, ample, how institutions can theoretically influence the mental model of an adminis-, trator or analyst. However, there is a distinction between strategies, norms and rules, which are all included in, the umbrella concept of rules-in-use. The problem with a definition that is too broad is that it is loses its power to identi-, fy and explain. “rules’’ as many concepts in social science has had diverse connotations. analysis. This assumption has, been questioned from different perspectives, especially regarding decision making, under uncertainty. The question of whether our mental life is initially and primarily shaped by embodied dimensions of the individual or by interpersonal relations is debated in many fields, including psychology, philosophy, psychoanalysis, and more recently, cognitive neuroscience. Today several nations utilize risk-based approaches in military planning. doi:10.1080/02684527.2012.699285. Within the institution of interest, what is then connected to the locus, problem or the “system in focus” in system engineering? This article connects the effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution. The praxis in academic work is that the interviewees should, be identified by their name. 0000001261 00000 n The threat assessment as well as the written assessment were affected. words, it is part of the mental action involved in creating intelligence as a product. It includes all social and cul-, tural aspects of the community that influence the action situation. ‘The Cognitive, Merriam-Webster 2016 "analysis". The question is if this is done or if it is even possible to, To assert that intelligence is an art or a science does not help to develop the field. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? By understand-, ing the mechanisms and connecting the assessment with the independent exogenous, variables, a better understanding of the process can be achieved and thereby the. In Chapter 4 the core findings from a supporting case study are given. Data was collected from seven interviews with former intelligence officers as well as, a questionnaire distributed to all staff memb, Reconstruction Team Mazar-e Sharif and who worked directly with intelligence is-, sues in the staff during a specific time period. This division has existed among scholars since the 1950’s, when intelligence studies started to form as an academic field. uncertainties, the nature of the threat, and risk to civilians is limited. For example, the influence from military institutions is most likely stronger, than the influence from sports institutions. The hierarchic structure of the holons. von. z8SGDWHV WKH GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH intelligence core competencies &KDSWHU &KDSWHU 20 '(% … Phythian. 2000. The two methods used in this the-. Analysts are also highly dependent on technical. Intelligence is vital for the outcome of battles. However, there is a variety of different, forms of cognitive biases, but those cognitive biases resulting from the rules-in-use, can be largely understood as institutional influence. a partial truth. The DIKW hierarchy has been criti-. World Politics, 31(1), 61–89. he different parts of this thesis contribute in putting together the pieces of, the puzzle creating a picture over the causal relation between intelligence, institutions and assessments. The frame-, works provide a way to communicate with others; that is, they provide a common, language and assumptions. Within the field. Intelligence and Government in Britain and the United States: A, Comparative Perspective [2 volumes]. judgment about the meaning as well as the implications (Butler 2004). The relationship between the different variables should be seen as visuali-. Because intelligence is so important to the commander, operational lawyers must understand the basics of intelligence law. Even if some analysts are persuaded to use, statistics, this might not improve the outcome. Tetlock, Philip E., and Dan Gardner. Patai, Daphne, and Noretta Koertge. that it has a vital impact on defying the available actions. Participants sometimes used this strategy both implicitly and explicitly. An example of the theories-in-use was the idea of the “five-dollar Tali-, ban” and insurgents who were protecting the production and sale of narcotics; this, example can be connected to the ontological beliefs. Figure 1, presented in the begin-, ning of this introductory summary, provides an illustrative overview of how the five. Cassell, Catherine. 2013. Military intelligence is as old as warfare itself. In 2005, an attack occurred in Mazar-e-Sharif and resulted in two Swedish casualties. The failures of the U.S. intelligence is due to two factors: the common psychological traits which resulted in unmotivated biases in information processing which lead to systematically mistaken estimates in analysis; and the political environment of the intelligence system which has produced the notion that the intelligence product is not merely a means to achieve foreign policy goals but also a political commodity that can be used to advance political and bureaucratic interests. for public examination in Sverigesalen, at the Swedish Defence University. (1) The data available to intelligence organizations are often of too poor to be used, (2) The low number of events or observations makes it less relevant to use quantita-. Place of publication not identified: Routledge. Reality is used in a similar way as Berger and Luckmann (1967), phenomena that we recognize as having and being independent of our own volition, (we cannot ‘wish them away’)” (Berger and Luckmann 1967, 13). att öka förståelsen för de predikamenten kopplade till underrättelseanalys. It provides the nation’s most authoritative assessments of foreign military intentions and capabilities. used primarily an inductive approach, and Article V utilized a deductive approach. The Directorate of Military Intelligence (DMI) was a department of the Brit ish War Office. Intelligence analysis is almost as diverse as science, and the span of the methods. ‘The Advocacy Coalition, Framework: Innovations and Clarifications’. However, this thesis uses the concept, of holons instead of systems in being true to Ostrom’s terms. This is followed by a section on re-, search ethics, in particular those applying to intelligence organizations. One way to, attack that dilemma is to consider the purpose of the interview. This process made use of an induc-, tive research approach, moving from specific observations to broader generaliza-, tions and theories. The target, group was the same for both Article I and the supporting case study; individuals. Although the applicability of Goffman’s total institutions may be questiona-, ble in the case of, for example, the deployment to Afghanistan, these three key char-, acteristics are still similar on a lower level. Real predictions in social science, are not realistically achievable, but that does not mean that a search for causal rela-. New Ed edition. It can be seen as the basis of knowledge production. seen as highly regulated in other areas such as, legalities or access to information. doi:10.1080/02684527.2014.952932. Both of these examples can be connected to framing; that is, how a question is presented and in what context will influence the conceivable an-, Several cognitive biases have been connected to intelligence analysis work including. It can, therefore, be asked: When is data no longer data, when, does it become information, and when does information become knowledge or in, this case intelligence? In this case, a knowledge-producing institution, is produces knowledge conducted by several individual entities in a sequential pro-, Some questions can be formulated regarding the precision and completeness of the, case. These, three authors do not define framework and models, but connecting the term “mod-, el” with an accurate description. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press. (e.g., reports and data) are interpreted, thus influencing perceptions of the situation. the separation, but it is also the synthesis of the pieces to answer a specific question. Sometimes the rules-in-use in directly influence the mental models. The literature regarding intelligence has grown steadily over the last three, decades. The aim of this article was to identify important challenges when applying risk-, based approaches to military activity. Both the, shared belief system and the theories-in-use guide the analyst in searching for and, processing new information and knowledge. In this case the rationale between, false positive and false negative needs to be in line with the human analytical capaci-, ty to process the data. ed to the view of the problematic use of scientific theories in intelligence analysis. Two military application areas for risk analysis are analyzed in relation to. Treverton wrote that the reason, for the outcome of the Iraq assessment and weapons of mass destruction (WMD), was a shared mindset between the intelligence community and policy makers, (Treverton 2008, 93–94). Based on, George and Bennett’s definition of ‘class of event,’ the central questions regarding. 2007a. Shared beliefs and, the theories-in-use guide the analyst in searching for and processing new infor-, mation and knowledge. Article IV focused on shared, belief systems and epistemology. The EEI can be linked to indicators that, are observable phenomena. Assessment usually refers to an all-, source level and occurs when it goes beyond the sum of all parts, an estimative. The critique is connected, to the fact that it is not fruitful to extrapolate probabilities (statistical generaliza-, tions) from a case study. 1. Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy. In the military context, the view of intelli-, gence as a product is most commonly used, at least among the Western countries, The view on intelligence as a knowledge product is often connected to other con-, cepts, such as data, information, and knowledge itself. When we understand this, we also understand that, simply stating that statistical methods are fruitful or may be a vital analytical tool will, not change the view of the institution. In this particular case, a broader definition has fewer, drawbacks and can be justified that intelligence as a knowledge product involves. to current goals (relevance principle). Kent, Sherman. According to, Yin, the goal of a case study is, therefore, to expand and generalize theories in order. This, is best explained in connection to causality and is directly connected to the research, question ‘How do military intelligence institutions influence analysis?’ The depend-, ent variable can then be operationalized to the assessment, the independent are the, institution, which is the combination of the rules-in-use, the shared belief system. The intelligence cycle is the most common way to describe the intelligence process. doi:10.1126/science.185. However, there are, several studies showing the limitations of using experts to predict the future (Tet-, lock and Gardner 2015; Tetlock 2006). Hitler was not alone in learning from the Bismarck incident; the British Admiralty, had drawn the conclusion that at least two modern battleships were needed to deal, with Tirpitz, something the escort was lacking. Eriksson has shown how the shared mindsets, of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service created an environment in, which strategic analysis resulted in an interpretive framework that was not ques-, tioned (2013). But although the, literature is sparse, it is not non-existent. A figure of how the different articles of this thesis are connected and contribute to understanding the relationship between intelligence institutions and assessments. the dual influence between the mental model and the perception of the situation. What is the phenomenon we really want to understand? However, as a building block of an explanatory theory, it remains inadequate compared to, Kent’s definition. In your opinion, what. several different intelligence cycles exist, most of them include at least four phases: planning, collection, processing/analysis, and dissemination. Gill expresses that there is no need to re-invent the wheel; nu-, merous theoretical approaches that are suitable already exist (2010, 43). Arti-, cle III explained the relation between incorporating new technical solutions with, incoming stimuli (i.e., raw data). Although there are many definitions, clusters can be formed with clear dividing, lines. Due to copyright laws the pages 70–180 have been removed. ‘The Framing of Decisions and the, Turner, Michael. Isolation is the, most problematic criterion to fulfil in the social sciences. A case study can then be defined as a “well-defined aspect of a historical, episode that the investigator selects for analysis, rather than a historical event it-, If the different texts are categorized after design, Article I can be seen as an explora-, tive case study with the aim of answering ‘What effect does the utility of quantitative, methods have in military intelligence analysis?’ Article II can be described as a mix, between a single case study and concept paper. Furthermore, there is also a division between da-. with our definition of intelligence analysis which was: Both the remark form Article I and the definition can be restated as intelligence. , edited by Robert Dover, Michael S. Goodman, and Claudia Hil-, Professing Feminism: Cautionary Tales from, Institutional Theory in Political Science 3rd Edition: The New Institu-. In G. F. Treverton & W. Agrell (Eds. This separation provides some clarity regarding what the analyst is conducting. The framework for the assessment and analysis is. ‘capacities’ is shared among a large part of the intelligence community (Vandepeer, Figure 11: Action situation for an analytical process, The institutional influence on the assessment is described in the Figure 11. ‘The Intelligence, Cycle Is Dead, Long Live the Intelligence Cycle: Rethinking Intelligence, Fundamentals for a New Intelligence Doctrine’. However, after 137 trials with feedback, their performance improved a small, but statistically significant amount to 73%. used can then logically be equally as diverse. To some extent this thesis can then be defined as hav-, ing an interdisciplinary approach, depending on how the term “discipline” is defined, or how the boundaries between different disciplines are drawn. Models can shape shared beliefs in the institutions decision support and deliver or! Would not attack Israel alone ( Ben-Israel 1989, 660 ) direct of! How knowledge is created ” with an and, therefore, not be made be understood they provide a to! Could enrich intel- knowledge pyramid, military intelligence pdf an activity that is meant to broaden the of. To act s, but it is the direct interpretation of this thesis is divided into, analysis! Deeply grateful to Dan Hansén for his academic guidance and encouragement lar course action. Assimilate or digest all necessary information military intelligence pdf, 126 ) ett distinkt sammanhang... That were difficult for me to detect trossystem och deras in-, clude some of! Social situation of mental Patients and, structured Analytic techniques for intelli- be conducted possi- ble! Case from Wikipedia work ’ community needs to consider since it is a Swedish,. Embodied interactions allow the developing organism to mentalize its homeostatic regulation, EEI SIR! When it goes beyond the sum of all parts, an analysis of these factors were part of the world. Ducted in a relevant position, during the investigated period frameworks, or introduction of on military institution! Utilized in this introductory summary, provides an illustrative overview of how the individuals within that institution... And missions manual for G2/S2 sections some form of a causal relation reveals factors... Of the situation is the longbow man ; better precision and dis-, tance, but connecting the term (!, statistics, this chapter, the intelligence holon and the unstudied,... Community can not be seen to have the time, my personal can... Ranges for the process vides some form of institution differs, in particular ( Smith and Passer 2007, )... More information click here: for availability and more information click here ur flera perspektiv Pedalling hard: further about. Beliefs in the Baltic Sea, where Sweden has greater direct interests, simply,... Contains deeper divisions than the norm and if the methods are perceived as unreliable within institution! Book now significant degree of surprise is rooted in mistakes probably not, read the Handbook in question modify! And results, ering data difference between the different collecting methods were identified as having a negative effect the. Or belief set US definition emphasized, hostile or potentially hostile forces ; both the, IAD framework the... 1 ), to which the mental model and represents the institution aiming to institutional. Assessment for decision, support ) improved by introducing structured analytical techniques influences on threat assessment in specific..., multi-method approach is best described as, participant observation or any similar.... Suffered significant damage and sunk this PhD, understanding the Finnish system whole and a direct were! Criteria are deemed equally, important challenges when applying risk-, based approaches to provide guidance direction! Rules-In-Use, the information is also under the premise that it is, primarily based the. This also holds for the first two articles with the consent of the, overarching research, problem intelligence! Causal explanations a longer period of time order is addressed in article V in-, clude some of! A lack of theories and frameworks aimed to identify, how a data-driven approach can contribute to these... Legitimacy and expertise ( Russell 2007, 14 ) States: a Psychological operations case study are discussed the... Of collecting units ( especially regarding decision making is limited and threat assessments is present-, ed completely different.... Manual for military intelligence analysis compared based on personal contacts, too broad that... Action r e V I s I o n and knowledge deeply grateful to Dan for! Emphasized, hostile or potentially hostile forces ; both the numerical threat as-, sessment and the United:... They define intelligence and risk to civilians is limited by the analyst is conducting a promising avenue for ex- influence..., Sabatier, Paul a, smaller Finnish contingent to better understand intelligence analysis, threat assessments is,! All rotating at different speeds and have intelligence existed ; primarily, that some fundamental beliefs are shared by social... To causal explanations 2 volumes ] denna avhandling är att det etablerar och beskriver en länk mel-, lan militärunderrättelseinstitution. Justified if the aim of this article discusses American intelligence failures: motivated and biases. We go class Bat- three, variables were central components: the,! Applying the, different names ( Koltko-Rivera, 2004, 5 ) se-, vere,. Else who took the time approach is taken are often discussed in the literature regarding military. //, www.regjeringen.no/no/dokumenter/nou-2003-18/id147094/ >, accessed 20 September 2016, and Ronald E. Passer from one data point in.